"And in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Lorena is a heavy rain threat for Mexico, while Hurricane Kiko may pass close to Hawaii Sep. 10-11."
"A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday morning was headed west at about 15 mph. Satellite imagery showed that the wave had a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that were poorly organized. The system was located far enough south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer to favor development, and sea surface temperatures near 27-28 degrees Celsius (81-82°F) were also favorable for development. However, moderate to high wind shear of 15-25 knots was interfering with development.
The wave has considerable support for development from the major models, with most of them showing a tropical depression or tropical storm forming by the end of the week. The system is expected to follow a west to west-northwest track through next week, with most of the models showing it tracking a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week. However, some of the model ensemble forecasts do show a potential threat to the islands, and residents there should monitor future forecasts.
In their 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the wave 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 30% and 70%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Gabrielle."
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson report for Yale Climate Connections September 2, 2025.
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